Nvidia's 70% Guide Buries the Meta Bill Beijing Would Kill For

Nvidia posted $96 billion in quarterly sales overnight, more than double a year ago, and guided to 70% growth ahead, per the FT. That is the number that matters this morning: Washington's China chip curbs have not stopped the order book, they have redirected it toward everyone else. Meta's $18 billion settlement with US states over teen mental health harms is real money and forces sweeping app changes for minors, but it is a compliance officer's Tuesday next to Nvidia's guide. This quarter's AI capex cycle is now too large for any single export-control regime to redirect, the opposite of what the sanctions crowd in Washington has been betting on. A private banker in Central should notice the Hong Kong export data released this week, up 53% year on year on AI-linked demand, the same capex wave showing up on the trade tape before it shows up in a US GDP print. Separately, US Treasury opened its widest Iran sanctions push yet, and a bank compliance head now has to screen counterparties against a trade-network list rather than a regime list. Watch Jackson Hole: Warsh speaks Friday with bond markets already on edge.