The capital is pricing NMN as a consumer supplement at an estimated USD 1.1 billion market by 2027 (Grand View Research, published November 2025). The two Phase 2 trials informing that valuation -- Washington University's NMNAT study in 25 postmenopausal women, primary endpoint muscle insulin sensitivity, and the Auckland trial in 66 older adults, primary endpoint six-minute walk distance -- both missed their primary endpoints; the Washington University study showed no statistically significant change in skeletal muscle NAD+ metabolism at the planned 10-week analysis.

Regulatory posture has not caught up with the capital. The US FDA classifies NMN as a dietary supplement rather than an investigational drug, a status the FDA's Office of Dietary Supplement Programs has not revisited despite a 2021 exemption petition from Metro International Biotech being denied on conflict-of-interest grounds. NMPA's Center for Drug Evaluation has approved no NMN-containing product for a disease indication; the products moving through Tmall's registered-health-food channel carry Ministry of Health and Care Services filings for "fatigue relief," a functional claim that is not a clinical endpoint. The capital is pricing NAD+ restoration. The trials are pricing a mechanism nobody has yet demonstrated in a primary endpoint above n=66.