Xi Jinping lands in Washington on September 24 with one demand for Donald Trump: stop selling weapons to Taiwan. Reuters reported the ask is explicit, not implied, which matters because Beijing spent the prior week doing the opposite of asking nicely. On September 19, Trump described Taiwan's own arms shipments as "chips to play" in his dealings with Xi. Three days later, the New York Post reported Washington moving to back Taipei ahead of the summit even as the $14 billion arms sale Beijing threatened to blow up the visit over on September 13 stays on the table, unresolved and unwithdrawn.

The Ministry of National Defense in Taipei tracked four Chinese aircraft, six naval vessels, and three official ships around the island in the 24 hours before Tuesday, September 22, the kind of patrol tempo Xi's delegation will not mention across the table. A summit does not pause the pressure that makes the summit necessary. Xi is not choosing between charm and coercion in Washington this week. He is bringing the coercion to the charm offensive, and asking Trump to price it as a concession. If Trump treats the arms halt as a topic for negotiation rather than a red line, the $14 billion sale becomes the actual measure of what the summit bought Beijing.